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The effects of government debt management and economic uncertainty and macroeconomic policies on sustainable development during recession and prosperity by applying the Markov regime change model
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Maryam Kosari *   |
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Abstract: (333 Views) |
In relation to the impact of government debts on the real sector of the economy, there are some theoretical bases. These two spectrums include Ricardo's principle of equality and Keynesian theory. Ricardo's equality principle states that for a certain path (level) of government consumption, the interperiod transfer of taxes, the accumulation of debts or the reduction of government debts has no effect on the consumption of the private sector. In other words, government bonds in the hands of the private sector are not considered pure wealth for households. The present study investigates the effects of government debt management and economic uncertainty and macroeconomic policies on sustainable development during recessions and booms by using the Markov regime change model, which is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive in terms of analytical nature. Among the post-event researches, the time series information of Iran during the years 1360 to 1400 was used to estimate the model. The estimation of the model is done using the Markov-switching method. According to the results of the classical assumption test, the model is confirmed from the perspective of the hypotheses of non-autocorrelation, homogeneity variance and normality.
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| Keywords: government debt management - economic uncertainty - macro policies - sustainable development - Markov regime change model |
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Full-Text [PDF 756 kb]
(98 Downloads)
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Type of Study: Research |
Subject:
Special
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